Population Projections 2023 to 2080

URL: https://opendata.gov.je/dataset/381acb20-cf53-42c1-a011-7b5faea43fbe/resource/55484fdf-7547-4099-ad5e-e8115656c087/download/population-projections-2023-to-2080.csv

The projections use a baseline of residents in Jersey based on the latest Jersey population and migration statistics. The population model uses this baseline population and projects the population forwards year by year, by adding births, subtracting deaths and adjusting for inward and outward migration.

It is important to note that the projections are not forecasts and so will differ from the actual future outcomes to a greater or lesser extent. They assume that current trends and behaviour in respect of fertility, mortality and migration continue forward over the projection period. Changes to these assumptions will impact the results, therefore the findings should be considered an estimate based on recent trends to inform decision making.

The projections are presented as a series of scenarios based on a set level of net migration experienced every year over the projection period. These are:

-100 net migration: where 100 people leave the Island over and above the number that arrive. Net nil migration: where the number of people arriving equals the number of people leaving. +325 net migration: where 325 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave. +700 net migration: where 700 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave. +1,000 net migration: where 1,000 arrive on the Island over and above the number that leave.

Note: Ages greater than 95 have been merged and are labelled as 999 in the data table

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Data Dictionary

Column Type Label Description
Scenario text
Year numeric
Age numeric
Sex text
People numeric

Additional Information

Field Value
Data last updated December 20, 2023
Metadata last updated December 20, 2023
Created December 20, 2023
Format text/csv
License Open Government Licence – Jersey v1.0
created11 months ago
datastore activeTrue
formatCSV
has viewsTrue
id55484fdf-7547-4099-ad5e-e8115656c087
last modified11 months ago
mimetypetext/csv
on same domainTrue
package id381acb20-cf53-42c1-a011-7b5faea43fbe
revision id680bfc87-615f-4e7b-b6a5-f88cd904d255
size2.3 MiB
stateactive
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